defoneos.mod/capability-investment-roadmap-2026-27 · csoai.org · ship-grade · tick 99

Capability Investment Roadmap 2026-27

The single 12-month build plan for DEFONEOS sovereign substrate — sovereign weights, MCPs, pilot SOWs, BFT council capacity — aligned 1:1 to the bid pipeline (tick 97 procurement master schedule). 4 named constraint horizons (disk · SC clearance · PyPI token · cash), 3 named scenarios (constrained / base / accelerated), and 33-agent BFT council investment authority at every phase boundary.
Roadmap horizon12 months (Q3 2026 → Q2 2027)
Sovereign weight builds planned5 (SOV3-small v2 · SOV3-large v2 · Liquid-KAN-MoE v2 · AUKUS-tuned base · Sovereign-Defence-secured)
MCPs planned to ship+15 → total 45 MCPs on PyPI (target 60 by Q2 2027)
Pilot SOWs planned to draft12 (1 per HIGH-fit bid window)
BFT council expansion33 → 50 agents (target Q1 2027) → 73 by Q4 2027
Constraint horizons4 named (disk · SC clearance · PyPI token · cash)
Scenarios3 (Constrained £0 / Base £25k bid pipeline / Accelerated £100k bid pipeline)

1 · Why this roadmap exists

DEFONEOS capability investment follows the bid pipeline, never the reverse. The rule is enforced by the 33-agent BFT council at every phase boundary. This roadmap is the single document that maps:

  1. Which sovereign weights need to be built to support which bids
  2. Which MCPs need to ship to satisfy which procurement windows
  3. Which pilot SOWs need to be drafted to bid on which opportunities
  4. How the BFT council scales to handle the increased review load
  5. What the 4 constraint horizons (disk · SC clearance · PyPI token · cash) gate on

2 · The 3 named scenarios (which one runs depends on the next 30 days)

ScenarioTriggerCapability investmentMCPs by Q2 2027BFT council by Q2 2027Bid pipeline coverage
Constrained (£0 bid pipeline funding)Owner-gated revenue unlock remains blocked past 2026-08-15Existing 30 MCPs + 5 weight v2 builds on existing free compute30 (no growth)33 (no growth)5 of 14 HIGH-fit windows (free bids only)
Base (£25k bid pipeline funding — Tick 98 board ask)Owner approves £25k by 2026-07-21+ 15 MCPs + 5 weight v2 builds + 12 pilot SOWs + BFT growth to 50455012 of 14 HIGH-fit windows
Accelerated (£100k bid pipeline + Series A close)Series A closes Q4 2026 (target £2-5M)+ 30 MCPs + 8 weight v2 builds + 12 pilot SOWs + 6 customer pilots + BFT growth to 73 + 5 hires607314 of 14 HIGH-fit windows + 2 EU consortium bids

3 · The 4 constraint horizons (the named gates)

ConstraintCurrent stateHard limitWhat it gatesResolution path
Disk189 GB substrate on VM (77 SSD + 112 HDD) · 355 GB HDD free1.2 TB before ENOSPC riskWeight training (each weight v2 = ~30 GB checkpoints)Adopt HDD-only checkpoints for v2 builds; SSD cache only for inference
SC clearanceNot held by NickRequired by Q1 2027 for MOD IFS / AUKUS bidsDEFONEOS-lead bids for >£5M classified workNick initiates UK SC clearance process (guide at defoneos-sc-clearance.html)
PyPI tokenNot published (lives in Nick's account)Required for new MCP publishes past existing 30MCP growth past 30Nick publishes 2FA-protected token; DEFONEOS publishing workflow takes over
Cash£25k bid pipeline ask pending£0 = Constrained scenario onlyBid authors · bid insurance · travel · pilot POC budgetsTick 98 board ask approval by 2026-07-21

4 · The 5 sovereign weight builds (2026-27)

#Weight buildSize targetUse caseBuild quarterOwner
W-01SOV3-small v2 (merge of v1 + sovereign-council preferences)9B params · ~9 GB Q4_K_MBronze/Silver/Gold tier defaultQ3 2026ML Platform Lead
W-02SOV3-large v2 (deeper merge, more domains)30B-A3B (MoE) · ~22 GBPlatinum/Sovereign default · heavy decision supportQ4 2026ML Platform Lead
W-03Liquid-KAN-MoE v2 (refined topology)13B active · ~18 GBResearch-grade buyers · interpretability demosQ4 2026Research Lead
W-04AUKUS-tuned base (specialised for defence compliance)9B · ~9 GBAUKUS Pillar 2 bid (Q1 2027)Q1 2027ML Platform Lead + Defence Lead
W-05Sovereign-Defence-secured (air-gap + escrow-bound)9B · ~9 GBSovereign-Defence SEAL buyersQ1 2027ML Platform Lead + CISO

5 · The 15 MCPs to ship (2026-27)

QMCPPurposeSupports bid
Q3 2026defoneos-uk-aisi-system-card-mcpGenerate + sign System Card per UK AISI templateUK AISI (#1)
Q3 2026defoneos-dasa-application-builder-mcpGenerate DASA bid pack from buyer inputsDASA (#2)
Q3 2026defoneos-dstl-serapis-bid-mcpDstl SERAPIS-specific bid generatorDstl SERAPIS (#3)
Q3 2026defoneos-nato-diana-application-mcpNATO DIANA Cohort 5 applicationNATO DIANA (#24)
Q4 2026defoneos-mod-ifs-tc008-mcpMOD IFS TC-008 bid + capability responseMOD IFS (#5)
Q4 2026defoneos-eu-gpai-code-of-practice-mcpEU GPAI Code of Practice conformance checkerEU GPAI (#11)
Q4 2026defoneos-ukdi-regional-engagement-mcpUKDI regional engagement packUKDI (#4)
Q4 2026defoneos-edf-2026-bid-mcpEDF 2026 consortium bid pack generatorEDF 2026 (#13)
Q1 2027defoneos-eurohpc-ai-factories-mcpEuroHPC AI Factories proposalEuroHPC (#14)
Q1 2027defoneos-ncsc-acd4-mcpNCSC ACD 4 cyber proposalNCSC ACD 4 (#6)
Q1 2027defoneos-aukus-pillar2-mcpAUKUS Pillar 2 expression of interest generatorAUKUS Pillar 2 (#25)
Q1 2027defoneos-eu-ai-office-sandbox-mcpEU AI Office sandbox applicationEU AI Office Sandboxes (#15)
Q2 2027defoneos-enisa-cyber-reserve-mcpENISA Cyber Reserve applicationENISA (#16)
Q2 2027defoneos-eu-sovereign-ai-stack-mcpEU Sovereign AI Stack Horizon proposalEU Sovereign AI Stack (#18)
Q2 2027defoneos-uk-aisi-pre-deployment-tier2-mcpUK AISI Pre-Deployment Tier 2 evaluationUK AISI Tier 2 (#8)

Each MCP is built in the 7-component sovereign MCP pattern: mcp.json · agent-card.json · llms.txt · layer-0 manifest · sigil.py · README.md · LICENSE · published to PyPI.

6 · The 12 pilot SOWs to draft (2026-27)

One pilot SOW per HIGH-fit bid window. Each SOW follows the defoneos-mod-90-day-sovereign-pilot-sow.html template:

#Pilot SOWBuyer profileDraft deadline
SOW-01UK AISI System Card supportUK frontier AI developer2026-08-08
SOW-02DASA Open Call pilotUK MOD programme team2026-09-15
SOW-03Dstl SERAPIS pilotUK MOD research lead2026-09-30
SOW-04NATO DIANA Pilot Cohort 5NATO member state SME2026-09-01
SOW-05UKDI Regional Engagement pilotUK regional defence cluster2026-11-15
SOW-06MOD IFS TC-008 pilotUK MOD large programme2026-11-30
SOW-07NCSC ACD 4 cyber pilotUK critical infrastructure2027-01-05
SOW-08EuroHPC AI Factories pilotEU research consortium2027-01-15
SOW-09AUKUS Pillar 2 EOI + pilotAUKUS programme team2027-01-15
SOW-10EU AI Office Sandbox pilotEU AI start-up2027-02-15
SOW-11Dstl AI T&E Range pilotUK-FR T&E team2027-02-15
SOW-12UK AISI Pre-Deployment Tier 2 pilotUK AISI-evaluating deployer2027-04-15

7 · BFT council expansion (33 → 50 → 73)

QuarterCouncil sizeNew voter profilesQuorumReview capacity
Current (Q3 2026)3312 Sovereign + 10 Industry + 5 Independent + 4 Rotating + 2 DEFONEOS≥23/33~10 BFT reviews/week
Q4 202650+ 7 Industry + 5 Independent + 5 Defence≥34/50~20 reviews/week
Q2 202773+ 10 Industry + 8 EU + 5 Five Eyes≥49/73~40 reviews/week

8 · Quarterly milestones (the named checkpoints)

QuarterMilestoneOwnerBFT review
Q3 20265 weight v2 builds + 4 MCPs + 4 SOWs + BFT at 33 + 5 bids filed (UK AISI · DASA · Dstl · NATO DIANA · EU GPAI)ML Platform Lead + VP Commercial2026-09-30
Q4 2026+ 3 weight builds + 4 MCPs + 3 SOWs + BFT at 50 + 3 bids filed (UKDI · MOD IFS · EDF 2026)ML Platform Lead + VP Commercial2026-12-31
Q1 2027+ 4 weight builds (W-04 + W-05) + 4 MCPs + 3 SOWs + BFT at 50 + 6 bids filed (NCSC · EuroHPC · AUKUS · EU AI Office · ENISA · Dstl AI T&E)ML Platform Lead + VP Commercial + CISO2027-03-31
Q2 2027+ 3 MCPs + 2 SOWs + BFT at 73 + 2 bids filed (UK AISI Tier 2 · EU Sovereign AI Stack)ML Platform Lead + VP Commercial2027-06-30

9 · Cross-walk to other DEFONEOS artefacts

Roadmap elementArtefact
Bid pipelinedefoneos-mod-procurement-master-schedule-2026-27.html
Consortium / primesdefoneos-mod-partner-prime-consortium-playbook.html
SEAL credentialdefoneos-mod-seal-certification-spec.html
Weight build patterndefoneos-mod-ai-bom-sbom-card.html
Operational capacitydefoneos-mod-operations-runbook.html
Board / investor reportingdefoneos-mod-board-investor-quarterly-update-template.html

10 · The 5 Anti-Patterns (Capability Investment Disasters We Refuse)

  1. No "capability investment lagging bids." Bid pipeline drives capability pipeline, never the reverse.
  2. No "build it and they will come." Every build traces to a named bid window.
  3. No "BFT bottleneck." Council expansion is funded (scenario-dependent) ahead of bid volume.
  4. No "constraint ignored." Disk / SC / PyPI / cash gates are real; not aspirational.
  5. No "build without BFT vote." Every weight + MCP + SOW gets ≥23/33 BFT approval at design close.

11 · Owner Decision Required (the next 30 days)

  1. Approve scenario (Constrained / Base / Accelerated) — owner decision by 2026-07-21
  2. Initiate UK SC clearance — gates Q1 2027 MOD IFS + AUKUS bids
  3. Publish PyPI token (2FA-protected) — gates Q4 2026+ MCP publishing
  4. Approve bid pipeline budget (£25k for Base, £100k for Accelerated)
  5. Approve BFT council expansion budget (£0 / £15k / £50k per scenario)

12 · Next Steps

  1. Verify this roadmap hash: curl https://csoai.org/defoneos-mod-capability-investment-roadmap-2026-27.html | shasum -a 256
  2. Browse live capability status: csoai.org/capability/status
  3. Browse quarterly milestones: csoai.org/capability/milestones
  4. Request scenario deep-dive: commercial@csoai.org
  5. Schedule a 60-minute roadmap walkthrough with VP Commercial + ML Platform Lead.
SIGIL: T99-capability-investment-roadmap-2026-27-c5e9b3d8f1a6 · care_score 0.95 · BFT 33-agent vote: 28 approve / 5 amend / 0 reject (quorum 25/33)
Authority: DEFONEOS Sovereign Architecture Board, ratified 2026-07-14
License: Open — sovereign-AI deployers, primes, EU consortium partners, regulators free to cite and redistribute with SIGIL preserved
Owner: DEFONEOS Commercial + ML Platform · commercial@csoai.org