9 named Tier-1 bid opportunities · 5-stage pipeline gate model · 4 procurement frameworks · £38.2M FY26-27 addressable · £6.14M weighted pipeline.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| FY26-27 addressable market | £38.2M | MOD DSIS, NHS digital budget, G-Cloud spend data |
| Active pipeline (identified + qualified + pursuing) | £24.7M | 9 named opportunities |
| Weighted pipeline (probability-adjusted) | £6.14M | 5-factor win-probability model |
| Bid opportunities in pipeline | 9 | Named, sourced, cross-walked |
| Owner-gate dependencies | 6 | See Section 6 |
| # | Opportunity | Framework | Value | Stage | Win Prob | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B1 | MOD DE&S Command Operations Platform | DSP | £4.2M | GATED | 20% | £840k |
| B2 | DASA Open Call — AI for Defence | DASA | £650k | PURSUE | 55% | £358k |
| B3 | NATO DIANA Dual-Use AI Challenge | NATO DIANA | £400k | PURSUE | 45% | £180k |
| B4 | G-Cloud 14 — AI Services Lot | G-Cloud14 | £8.5M | IDENTIFY | 15% | £1.275M |
| B5 | DSTL Serapis — Sovereign AI Research | DSP | £1.8M | GATED | 20% | £360k |
| B6 | FCDO — Crisis Intelligence Platform | G-Cloud14 | £2.1M | IDENTIFY | 18% | £378k |
| B7 | NHS England — AI Compliance Automation | NHS FCS | £5.2M | IDENTIFY | 15% | £780k |
| B8 | UK AISI — Defence AI Evaluation | Direct | £350k | PURSUE | 50% | £175k |
| B9 | Innovate UK — Sovereign AI Infrastructure | Direct | £1.5M | PURSUE | 45% | £675k |
| Stage | Description | Gate Criteria |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Identify | Opportunity found and logged with source | Named opportunity, budget identified, decision-maker known |
| 2. Qualify | Opportunity assessed against DEFONEOS fit | Technical fit confirmed, value range estimated, timeline known |
| 3. Pursue | Active bid preparation underway | Bid pack drafted, evidence artefacts gathered, SIGIL-anchored |
| 4. Bid | Submission made to buyer | All gate criteria met, bid submitted within deadline |
| 5. Award | Contract awarded or lost | Win/loss recorded, lessons captured in SIGIL ledger |
The primary MOD procurement platform. Requires supplier registration. GATE: DSP registration needs Nick's email/company details. Unlocks B1 (£4.2M) + B5 (£1.8M) = £6M.
Crown Commercial Service framework for cloud and digital services. Lot: AI Services. GATE: G-Cloud 14 application window expected Q4 2026. Unlocks B4 (£8.5M) + B6 (£2.1M) = £10.6M.
MOD innovation fund. Open calls for AI/defence technologies. DASA bid pack ready at defoneos-dasa-bid-author-pack.html. Unlocks B2 (£650k) + potential follow-on.
NATO Defence Innovation Accelerator. Dual-use AI challenge calls. Application pack ready at defoneos-nato-diana-application-pack.html. Unlocks B3 (£400k) + NATO credibility.
| Factor | Weight | Description |
|---|---|---|
| F1: Technical Fit | 30% | How well DEFONEOS matches the requirement specification |
| F2: Sovereign Advantage | 25% | UK-sovereign, JSP 936, no US dependency — unique differentiator |
| F3: Price Competitiveness | 20% | 1/40th cost of Palantir, Apache 2.0 open-source |
| F4: Compliance Readiness | 15% | Cyber Essentials, SC clearance, JSP 936, BFT council |
| F5: Relationship / Track Record | 10% | Prior contracts, references, demonstration evidence |
These are the 6 dependencies that require Nick's personal action to unlock pipeline value:
47 SIGIL-anchored evidence artefacts support the pipeline. Each artefact is Ed25519-signed, timestamped (RFC3161), and Bitcoin OTS-anchored:
| Category | Count | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| Compliance documentation | 12 | JSP 936 spec, GDPR DPIA, EU AI Act assessment, System Card |
| Technical demonstrations | 8 | Cesium ISR demo, BFT council vote recording, MCP federation proof |
| Architecture references | 10 | Deployment topology, escrow protocol, inference routing spec |
| Governance records | 9 | BFT session transcripts, SIGIL ledger, red-team reports |
| Financial models | 8 | ROI model, pricing sheet, BCR analysis, cost-comparison |